Workshop I: New Approaches to Climate Change

World Economic Forum Annual Meeting - Davos, Switzerland, 25-30 January, 2001

A collection of Knowledge Agents being gathered to support the Process during the Four Work Shops that will be facilitated by Matt and Gail Taylor.

Please e-mail Jeff Johnston with edits, additions, comments, etc. (jjohnston@iterations.com)

Click here to go to Matt's public website describing the process that will be used to facilitate these workshops.


Workshop I: New Approaches to Climate Change, Friday, 26 January, 9.00-10.30

The stalemate at the Hague Conference in November highlighted the shortcomings with the current international framework for addressing climate change. What lessons were learned from the failure of The Hague Summit? What are some viable strategies to implement the Kyoto Protocol without affecting its environmental integrity? This workshop will explore ways to deal with complex issues that have arisen from the climate change debate.

Purpose/Objectives:

  • arrive at a PUSH GOAL= formulate a requirement: 15-20 years from now, we will have a global climate change policy which is seen as efficient, fair and sufficient and which reflect a degree of flexibility and respect for the diversity of circumstances across the world.
  • This session starts the process of direct dialogue between business, government and other stakeholders Ð most notably with the heads of leading environmental NGOs.
  • Participants will be challenged to look at this requirement and make a commitment to find flexible and decentralized approaches to the climate change problem.
  • Explore innovative strategies to deal with climate change.

Working tables will be focusing on:

  • The challenging nature of the Global Warming Issue
  • Kyoto Protocol Ð important first step but not the end of the story
  • Involvement of all players (both developed and developing nations)
  • Establishing incentive mechanisms and fairness(to make sure that those who have made efforts will be rewarded while penalizing those who have done nothing, which prevents moral hazards and free riders).
  • Exploring a market-based solution to climate change.
  • The role of technology/innovation and long-term R & D

Questions to be raised:

  • How can business proactively address this issue now rather than react to public pressure, legislation, litigation or worse in the future?
  • What can NGOs do?
  • What can they do together?
  • What is expected of governments?

New Paradigm:

In the year 2025, we will have a global climate change policy which is seen as efficient, fair and sufficient and which reflect a degree of flexibility and respect for the diversity of circumstances across the world.

This session starts the process of direct dialogue between business, government and other stakeholders Ð most notably with the heads of leading environmental NGOs. Participants will be challenged to look at this requirement and make a commitment to explore innovative strategies to deal with climate change.

In the year 2025, the Earth is seen as a garden and that all of humanity has a stake in nurturing this garden and making it a better place to live.

Issues and Questions:

(1) what was the challenging nature of the Global Warming Issue?

(2) what were the main obstacles of the Kyoto Protocol?

(3) how did we finally assure the involvement of all players (both developed and developing nations)?

(4) what were some of the incentive mechanisms established to ensure fairness (to make sure that those who have made efforts will be rewarded while penalizing those who have done nothing, which prevents moral hazards and free riders)?

(5) how did we finally kick the CO2 habit?

(6) what role did technology/innovation and long-term R & D play?

(7) how did business proactively address the issue while waiting for legistation?

(8) what was the tipping point that finally convinced business, governments and civil society to cooperate in order to achieve all this?

Key Tipping Point that enabled the paradigm shift: What was the milestone that once reached, enabled everything else to fall into place?

Thoughts on themes and images for slide show:

Show examples of how human kind has had measurable impacts on the natural environment.

  1. Changes in coloration of moths living in England in the later half of the 19th century. Moths changed from speckled to black due to the industrial soot that covered everything. (http://www.tulane.edu/~guill/demonstration_module.html, http://www.homeworkhelp.com/homeworkhelp/freemember/text/bio/high/private/ch08/0400/main.htm,
  2. Images of forests followed by images of clear-cuts
  3. Dams,

Experts:

  • Jens Stoltenberg, Prime Minsister of Norway
  • Mario Molina, Nobelpreisträger, Professor MIT, USA
  • "Business Voice", TBA
  • Jeffrey A. Frankel, Professor, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, USA
  • Björn Stigson, President, World Business Council for Sustainable Development, Geneva
  • Maurice F. Strong, President, University for Peace and Senior Advisor to the Secretary-General of the United Nations
  • Thilo Bode, International Executive Director, Greenpeace International, Netherlands
  • Mohamed T. El-Ashry, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Global Environment Facility, USA
  • Daniel C. Esty, Director, Yale Center for Environmental Law and Policy, USA
  • Claude Martin, Director-General, WWF International, Gland
  • Jan Pronk, Minister of Housing and Environment of the Netherlands
  • Klaus Töpfer, Executive Director, United Nations Environmental Programme, Nairobi

 

Knowledge Agent
The WEF description of the workshop (Click here for the Word document)
Session Structure, 01.01.17. (Click here for the Word document)
Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg New YearÕs speech 1 January 2001
Mario J. Molina Homepage -

CHEMIST DONATES NOBEL WINNINGS PART OF PRIZE TO FUND ECOLOGY WORK AT MIT, by Peter J. Howe, Globe Staff Date: Thursday, February 15, 1996

"It's clear to me that one of the important needs for global environmental issues is the participation of scientists from all over the world," Molina said yesterday. "We have some very big challenges ahead if we are to preserve the environment, and it's obvious that there are too few scientists from developing countries involved in the effort," he said.

Mario Molina - Rescuing the Ozone Layer, A Scientific American Profile

Beyond Kyoto, by Daniel C. Esty

"With the recent climate negotiations in the Hague having broken down amidst bitter recrimination from a number of directions, it is perhaps time to step back from the heat of the battle and take stock. No environmental issue looms larger than the potential for global warming, heightened intensity of storms, changed rainfall patterns, increased flooding, shifts in hydrological conditions, and sea level rise brought about by a buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Climate change casts a long shadow not only because of its broad possible ecological effects but also because of its extraordinary complexity as a policy matter and the likely significant economic impacts of taking action (or of inaction)."

This paper tries to develop a clear picture of the challenge and to offer some principles for moving forward.

(Click here for the Word document)

Critical Politics of Carbon Sinks, Opinion, Nature, 30 November 2000

Last week's suspension of climate-change negotiations in The Hague highlights a political need to grapple with the uncertain science of carbon sequestration before talks resume next year.

(Click here for the pdf)

Coping with Human CO2 Emissions, by Laura Serna and Carmen Fenoll, Nature, 7 December 2000

For two centuries, a natural experiment has ben showing how increasing atmospheric CO2 affects plants. Laboratory work provides pointers as to how they will respond in the future.

(Click here for the pdf document)

What Drives Climate?, by Lee R. Kump, Nature, 7 December 2000

Variation in the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere is usually taken to be the main cause of climate change on geological timescales. The apparent exceptions ot the link threaten to undermine that view.

(Click here for the pdf document)

The Great Ice Mystery, by Jon Copley, Nature, 7 December 2000

Changes in the extent and thickness of sea ice could alter ocean circulation and so disrupt the climate. This article considers one of the big unknowns in the global warming debate.

(Click here for the pdf document)

The New Uncertainty Principle, by David Appell, Scientific American, January 2001

For complex environmental issues, science learns to take a backseat to political precaution

The Carbon Trader - The Carbon Trader is the worlds leading reporter, library and commercial services intermediary within the emerging Carbon Credit Market.Ê

This is a great source of information.

Carbon trading set to boom despite COP6 failure, The Carbon Trader

The growth of emissions trading will not be derailed by the breakdown of the Hague talks on climate change last week, an advisor to the European Union on the subject told Reuters on Thursday. Carbon Dioxide (CO2) emissions trading will become the main route for reducing greenhouse gases because it remains the cheapest and most efficient method, said Neil Cohn, principal at energy brokerage company Natsource.

US power plants run out of pollution credits, The Carbon Trader

California's power plants, running hard to fend off a chronic electricity shortage, are themselves running out of pollution credits, forcing some to shut down, a leading state official said yesterday.

Canadian climate shows continuing warming trend, The Carbon Trader

Amid concerns that global warming is making itself felt in the Arctic, Canadian climatologists said on Wednesday that temperatures across the country were above normal in 2000 for the eighth consecutive year.Ê

California power talks run on, utilities flag, The Carbon Trader

Government officials and utility company executives held marathon talks with no end in sight on California's power crisis on Wednesday, as one of the state's largest utilities begged for state help to avert a shocking economic failure in the Golden State.

ANALYSIS: The Road from here, The Carbon Trader

Jan PronkÕs Herculean effort to provide a basis from which climate change negotiators could try to restart the stalled talks on implementing the Kyoto Protocol appears to have fallen well short of the mark.

Japan's CO2 Emissions Up 3.3% in FY 1999, The Carbon Trader

TOKYO, Nov. 30 (Kyodo) -- Japan's carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions increased 3.3% to 1.15 billion tons in fiscal 1999 from the previous year as energy consumption increased on the back of a recovering economy, the Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI) said Thursday.

Clinton's warns Americans of climate change, The Carbon Trader

President Clinton has told Americans that climate change is a reality, and that the United States faces serious damage as a consequence.

globalchange.gov - Gateway to global change data in the US

A portal for all sorts of news and info on global change issues

Operational Significant Event Imagery

The Operational Significant Event Imagery team produces high-resolution, detailed imagery of significant environmental events which are visible in remotely-sensed data.

USGS Satellite Images of Environmental Change
NOAA's Arctic Theme PageÊ

"The Arctic remains one of the least explored, studied and understood places on earth. Change in the Arctic may play a substantial role in climate change throughout the globe. ... Global change, particularly climate change may have its most pronounced effects in the Arctic."

NASA's Global Change Master Directory - A comprehensive directory about Earth science and global change data.

Worldwatch Institute, Micropower: The Next Electrical Era

(Click here for the pdf document)

Viridian

"A group made of some 1,300 Internet activists committed to fighting the greenhouse effect."

Combating Deforestation - United Nations Sustainable Development, Adgenda 21, Chapter 11
World Resources Institute - A great resource for all sorts of environmental information
Dawn of the Hydrogen Age, by Jacques Leslie, WIRED, October 1997
The European Partners for the Environment - EPE is a multi-stakeholder forum which builds the ground for consensus on sustainability, on which members can more confidently plan actions. EPE serves as a catalyst, in Europe and around the world, to achieve into the future a better balance between the environmental, social and economic elements of life. Dialogue built through long-term relationships between partners and strengthened by trust leads to common practical action.
Beyond Grey Pinstripes - Preparing MBAs for Social and Environmental Stewardship

'Earth System' Analysis and the Second Copernican Revolution, by H. J. Schellnhuber, Nature, December 2, 1999.

"Optical magnification instruments once brought about the Copernican revolution that put the Earth in its correct astrophysical context. Sophisticated information-compression techniques including simulation modelling are now ushering in a second 'Copernican' revolution. The latter strives to understand the 'Earth system' as a whole and to develop, on this cognitive basis, concepts for global environmental management."

(Click here for the pdf )

Eco-Efficiency, Creating More Value With Less Impact, World Business Council For Sustainable Development

(Click here for the pdf document)

Dumping Iron, by Charles Graeber, WIRED, November 2000

Ecohacker Michael Markels claims he has a megafix for global warming: Supercharge the growth of ocean plankton with vitamin Fe and let a zillion CO2 scrubbers bloom.

Confessions of a CO2 Composter, by Robert A. Metzger, WIRED, November 2000

How I learned to love crop residue.

Climate key, A single enzyme in peat bogs is the only thing preventing a catastrophic release of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide, New Scientist, 10 January 2001

Treaty Takes a POP at the Dirty Dozen, by Jocelyn Kaiser and Martin Enserink, Science, 15 December 2001

Last month's talks to mitigate global warming may have flopped, but this week brought some consolation to those concerned about the planet's environmental health: the first-ever global agreement to abolish a class of dangerous industrial chemicals. The treaty, finalized by representatives of 122 countries meeting in Johannesburg, South Africa, also spells out a process to determine the next chemicals to be proscribed.

The Causes of 20th Century Warming, by Francis W. Zwiers and Andrew J. Weaver, Science, 15 December 2001

U.S. Policies Pertaining to Weather and Climate Extremes, by Stanley A. Changnon and David R. Easterling, Science, 22 September 2000

Atmospheric extremes--which include floods, droughts, severe heat and cold, and storms--have resulted in steady increases in economic costs and lives lost in the United States since the Dust Bowl days of the 1930s. Shifts in the frequency and intensity of severe weather (events lasting hours or days) and climate extremes (events persisting for months or years) could exacerbate this growing problem. Most assessments of recent increases in losses, such as from El Ni–o 1997 (1), point to society and human behavior as the primary cause. Growth of population and wealth, as well as demographic shifts to coastal areas and to expanding metropolitan areas, have collectively increased the vulnerability of the United States to losses from weather extremes

Global Warming, Insects Take the Stage at Snowbird, by Jocelyn Kaiser, Science, 22 September 2000

The Dust Bowl that struck the southern plains of the United States in the 1930s devastated millions of hectares of rich farmland, leading 750,000 people to flee, burying houses with dirt, and darkening the skies for days. But that 7-year drought was a mere taste of what global warming may bring, warned ecologist Jim Clark of Duke University. Sediments from a North Dakota lake reveal that 8000 years ago, the plains were seesawing through droughts and wet periods that lasted a whopping 40 to 50 years. Similarly long drought cycles could happen again, asserts Clark, as accumulating greenhouse gases turn continental interiors warmer and drier.

Climate Extremes: Observations, Modeling, and Impacts, by David R. Easterling, Gerald A. Meehl, Camille Parmesan, Stanley A. Changnon, Thomas R. Karl, Linda O. Mearns, Science, 22 September 2000

One of the major concerns with a potential change in climate is that an increase in extreme events will occur. Results of observational studies suggest that in many areas that have been analyzed, changes in total precipitation are amplified at the tails, and changes in some temperature extremes have been observed. Model output has been analyzed that shows changes in extreme events for future climates, such as increases in extreme high temperatures, decreases in extreme low temperatures, and increases in intense precipitation events. In addition, the societal infrastructure is becoming more sensitive to weather and climate extremes, which would be exacerbated by climate change. In wild plants and animals, climate-induced extinctions, distributional and phenological changes, and species' range shifts are being documented at an increasing rate. Several apparently gradual biological changes are linked to responses to extreme weather and climate events.

The Global Carbon Cycle: A Test of Our Knowledge of Earth as a System, by Falkowski et al., Science, 13 October 2000

Motivated by the rapid increase in atmospheric CO2 due to human activities since the Industrial Revolution, several international scientific research programs have analyzed the role of individual components of the Earth system in the global carbon cycle. Our knowledge of the carbon cycle within the oceans, terrestrial ecosystems, and the atmosphere is sufficiently extensive to permit us to conclude that although natural processes can potentially slow the rate of increase in atmospheric CO2, there is no natural "savior" waiting to assimilate all the anthropogenically produced CO2 in the coming century. Our knowledge is insufficient to describe the interactions between the components of the Earth system and the relationship between the carbon cycle and other biogeochemical and climatological processes. Overcoming this limitation requires a systems approach.

Deserts Threatened by Climate Change, by Deborah Hill, Science Now, November 2000

Desert plants go wild during wet years when treated to excess carbon dioxide, researchers say. The finding backs up climate change models, which predict that rising levels of atmospheric CO2 will disrupt the ecology of sensitive desert ecosystems. Experts fear that the change will favor invasive plants given to triggering wildfires.

Mountain concern, by Emma Young, New Scientist, 4 January 2001

Melting permafrost threatens Alpine communities with deadly landslides The permafrost that holds together the slopes of some of Europe's highest mountain ranges is melting, threatening resorts and villages with deadly landslides.

Earth's Fidgeting Climate, NASA Science News, 20 October 2000

Is human activity warming the Earth or do recent signs of climate change signal natural variations? In this feature article, scientists discuss the vexing ambiguities of our planet's complex and unwieldy climate.

The Incredible Shrinking Ozone Hole, NASA Science News, 12 December 2000

After reaching record-breaking proportions earlier this year the ozone hole over Antarctica has made a surprisingly hasty retreat.

What Every Executive Needs to Know About Global Warming, by Kimberly O'Neill Packhard and Forest Reinhardt, Harvard Business Review, July-August 2000

(Click here for the pdf document)

The Great Climate Flip-Flop, by William H. Calvin, The Atlantic Monthly, January 1998

"Climate change" is popularly understood to mean greenhouse warming, which, it is predicted, will cause flooding, severe windstorms, and killer heat waves. But warming could lead, paradoxically, to drastic cooling -- a catastrophe that could threaten the survival of civilization

Unraveling the Signals of Global Climate Change, by Gary S. Dwyer, Science, 14 January 2000

Temperatures High and Low, by David E. Parker, Science, 18 February 2000

Satellite measurements of atmospheric temperatures have been available since 1979 through retrievals from Microwave Sounding Units (MSUs). These measurements show virtually no warming trend in the lower troposphere, the layer from about 1 to 5 km above Earth's surface. In contrast, measurements taken in situ at Earth's surface indicate a globally averaged warming of between 0.3¼ and 0.4¼C over the same period. Papers in this issue by Santer et al. (1, p. 1227) and Gaffen et al. (2, p. 1242) use a combination of observations and model simulations to throw further light on these trends and bring a partial reconciliation.

Weather Ruins Winter Vacations, by Bernt-Erik S¾ther, Science, 16 June 2000

Our world is warming up. Climate models predict that this increase in mean annual temperature will continue for the rest of the 21st century. Whatever the reasons for the temperature increase, there is accumulating evidence that climate change may have a stronger impact on ecological processes than previously realized.

Impacts of a Global Climate Cycle on Population Dynamics of a Migratory Songbird, by T. Scott Sillett, Richard T. Holmes, Thomas W. Sherry, Science, 16 June 2000

These findings demonstrate that migratory birds can be affected by shifts in global climate patterns and emphasize the need to know how events throughout the annual cycle interact to determine population size.

Dueling Models: Future U.S. Climate Uncertain, by Richard A. Kerr, Science, 23 June 2000

When Congress started funding a global climate change research program in 1990, it wanted to know what all this talk about greenhouse warming would mean for United States voters. Ten years later, a U.S. national assessment, drawing on the best available climate model predictions, concludes that the United States will indeed warm, affecting everything from the western snowpacks that supply California with water to New England's fall foliage.

Climate : Snow business, by Philip Ball, Nature Science Update, 31 July 2000

If you thought that global warming would put paid to your dreams of a white Christmas, think again. According to Ross Brown of the Meteorological Service of Canada, the amount of ground covered by winter snow in North America increased over the course of the twentieth century.

Is Global Warming Harmful to Health? by Paul R. Epstein, Scientific American, August 2000

Computer models indicate that many diseases will surge as the earthÕs atmosphere heats up. Signs of the predicted troubles have begun to appear.

Environment: Arctic plants can stand the heat, by Philip Ball, Nature Science Update, 31 August 2000

Ecosystems can adapt to reduce the impact of a warmer, drier climate, new research in Nature suggests.

A Global Warming Report Predicts Doom for Many Species, by Sarah Lyall, New York Times, 1 September 2000

Global warming could wipe out many species of plants and animals by the end of the 21st century, the World Wide Fund for Nature said in a report issued here today.

The Natural World - Climate, New York Times

A GREAT portal for climate related stories from the NY Times

Money Down the Pipeline: Uncovering the Hidden Subsidies to the Oil Industry, by Roland Hwang. UCS, 1995

How tax breaks, government funding, and other subsidies benefit the oil industry at the expense of other energy technologies.

A Small Price to Pay; US Action to Curb Global Warming is Feasible and Affordable, Union of Concerned Scientists and Tellus Institute, July 1998

(Click here for the pdf document)

Linking Solutions to Climate Change and Biodiversity Loss Through the Kyoto Protocol's Clean Development Mechanism, by Peter C. Frumhoff, Darren C. Goetze, and Jared J. Hardner, Union of Concerned Scientists, October 1998

(Click here for the pdf document)

The Millennium Seed Bank Project

One of the largest international conservation projects ever undertaken, this international collaboration aims to safeguard over 24,000 plant species world-wide against extinction and to secure the future of the UK's native flowering plants.

The Pew Center on Global Climate Change, Working together because climate change is serious business

Human Health & Global Climate Change, A Review of Potential Impacts in the United States, John M. Balbus and Mark L. Wilson, The Pew Center on Global Climate Change

(Click here for the pdf document)

An Overview of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory Issues, by Christopher P. Loreti, William F. Wescott, and Michael A. Isenberg, The Pew Center on Global Climate Change, August 2000

(Click here for the pdf document)

Sustainable Energy and Economy Network -

The Sustainable Energy and Economy Network, a project of the Institute for Policy Studies (Washington, DC) and the Transnational Institute (Amsterdam), works in partnership with citizens groups globally on environment and development issues with a particular focus on climate change, human rights, energy, gender equity, and economic issues.

Cool Companies.org -

The Center's mission is to reduce energy costs and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by providing companies and other organizations with tools and strategies that can improve the environment, while increasing profits and productivity. Our core goal is to put these tools and strategies in the hands of the maximum number of organizations and to help measure the benefits in both economic and environmental terms.

The Eastern U.S. Keeps Its Cool - NASA Science News, 18 January 2001

While surface temperatures across most of the globe are on the rise, the eastern U.S. appears to be slowly cooling. Scientists say the trend could be a result of increasing cloud cover triggered by warming Pacific waters.

Technologies to Reduce Carbon Dioxide Emissions in the Next Decade, by Arthur H. Rosenfeld, Tina M. Kaarsberg, and Joseph Romm, Physics Today, November 2001

The prospects for meeting the Kyoto Protocol for greenhouse-gas reductions will be brighter if the US can develop technologies to lower its energy use.

Nations Argue over Climate Treaty , by Paul Guinnessy, Physics Today, November 2001

Disagreements at this month's climate meeting in the Hague could cause the Kyoto Protocol to fail

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

IPCC Special Report: Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry

(Click here for the pdf document)

BP - Cleaner Fuels

BP Solar - A New Approach

BP Solar develops and implements solar power solutions. We are the worldÕs largest manufacturer of solar electric panels and systems. Our extensive network of distributors provides solar power for industrial, commercial and residential customers throughout the world.

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